2016/06/16

How to unbound Bounded Rationality ?



People are only somewhat rational [1] - we all know this from our very self. How often we find ourselves trapped in a habit we crave to break, or in an uninspired, almost subconscious state where life floats away, untouched. How hard it is to consciously steering the self! How daunting to continually setting goals and resolutions, and then forgetting about them, slowly, loosing sight, observing yourself at a later point: „Oh yes, this used to be a thing for me. It still is, but when and why did I lose the urge?“ Not being able to live in line with your true intentions is for sure one of the most paralyzing facts about life. I bet the resulting cognitive dissonances have shattered quite a few people.

Times might change for the better though. Ubiquitous computing has set us up with powerful computing devices - in their best form, these are able to function as cognitive exoskeletons [2]: Where is the next barber shop? When does my bus leave? What is the dollar/euro exchange rate? Even largely complicated calculations and queries are often only one or two swipes away. How to learn C++? Why do cats have whiskers? All paintings by Vincent van Gogh? Violent conflicts in 2015 on subnational level? Higher derivatives of the Riemann zeta function?

50 years ago, it was likely that the next potential Einstein was an underprivileged child not going to school, never tapping into her full potential. But today? General education is improving, and so is the access to information. Little Einstein might have gone to some decent classes, and can now connect to the collective knowledge database of Homo Sapiens known as the internet. Unfortunately, the glassy helpers in our pockets have become a constant source of management themselves, disturbing rather than aiding. The cure for cancer or a combined theory of gravity and quantum mechanics might now be trapped in the mind of a gifted student who is unable to get rid of everyday distractions and consumptive, uncreative yet completely avoidable misbehavior.

Think about this. She might be right now on the web, browsing to inspirational talks, seeing Richard Feynman or reading about Rachel Carson, leaving her with the impression that there is profoundly more to the world to explore. Yet, with all of us being poor mind managers, her intentions erode. Briskly. As all ours do. She is not to blame, but has gotten uncomfortably introduced to that icky feeling of unrelieved ambition. And the problem can be much more mundane… It’s that message you wanted to write for weeks. That dentist appointment you have to make. Calling Mom more often. Finally going to the gym. 
Why do intention have to erode at all? And what can be done about this?

Current software-based personal assistants are fine, but not more. In principle, they still work like pen and paper calendars and to-do-lists. Neither have they taken advantage of the latest advances in context aware computing, nor have they caught up with the latest research of behavioral economist and psychologists on how to nudge people to take up on their desired actions [3]. Current technical improvements focus on bettering the managers to make it easier to search and combine information (take the example of Siri), but those queries are already easy enough! Everybody can do a quick online search in a matter of seconds, so there is only marginal utility in issuing an algorithm to do that for you. 

Access to information and extracting the valuable pieces are not the main restrictions in bettering livelihoods, health, and the ability to transform the world anymore - it is the capacity to manage our minds to act on the new-found myriad of insights. Yet, none of the services in place assist in what to search, and in what to do. I think we should work on this.

[1] D Kahneman - „Thinking, fast and slow.“ Macmillan (2011)
[2] T Harris - „How Technology Hijacks People’s Minds“
[3] RH Thaler, CR Sunstein - „Nudge : improving decisions about health, wealth, and happiness.“ Penguin Books (2009)

2016/06/12

The Past, in the Future

Jacques Henri Lartigue - Bibi au Restaurant d'Eden Roc Cap d'Antibes (1920)

When I saw this photo for the first time, I was a little puzzled to find out that it was shot nearly a century ago. Not that it seemed unimaginable... Life 1920 could well have looked like this.

No, it was rather the fact that it appeared possible that the photo had been shot today.
Wine bottles still look the same, as do flowers, and table cloth. And her dress and that hat! Not from another world either. 
The lack of things makes it unlikely that the photo is set in today's world. No screens, no plastic, no cables. Nevertheless, it is perfectly reasonable to assume that there are places similar to the one in the photo right now, with the same kind of chairs, the same set of plates, even the same open heater. The sun would cast its shadows identically anyhow.

Sometimes I am wondering: Some people right now should already be living a life which would totally be reasonable in some not that near future, based on the same logic. Who are those people? And am I living such a life?

[Is this really enough? And the writing is a little struggly. Not sure what to do about this tho]

2016/05/31

Humans Need Not Apply - by CGP Grey

I like CPR Grey for videos on weird border shapes and the like, but this one on increasing automation and robotics is really good and will fit to our scope.
[can we pleaaase find a better description for "really good"!?!]



[Isn't this a super cheap way to fill up the blog? I haven't done anything here! Didn't I want to avoid this link sharing stuff??
 But those videos are so interesting! Let's drop some Kurzgesagt videos too!]


2016/05/21

The Future, in the Past

How intriguing it is to wonder how people in the past thought about the future! What did they envision? What was grossly far fetched? What will always be impossible from current knowledge, and what was actually not that badly guessed? And most of all: What miracles did they miss? What things were far to advanced to even foresee in, say 1950? 

These postcards from France are hilarious yet slightly disturbing. 2000 in 1900 looked mechanistically batwinged:









This one is terrible: 



This farming on is actually quite interesting since this concept became largely true, I mean, figuratively (in some parts of the world OMG *SO MANY PEOPLE still farming with their hands [I should exercise more])




The lifelong dream of effortless learning. Still not at all there. We need to work on that: 


The 50s and 60s were a great time for futuristic dreams and illustrations. How awesome. In those moon-landing, nuclear war thread manic-depressive time, they had visions:







[Post without link or source? The poor creators!Am I allowed to do this?  At least mention a name here: Klaus Bürkle]


OMGG THERE IS A WHOLE BLOG ABOUT THIS, I DON’T HAVE TO WRITE MORE

Oh, and include this reddit:

[Is this like enough for a post!?! This is super incoherent. But nice pictures. Should I write more? People will not like this]


North Korea loves futurism btw, which makes me wonder a bit…



2016/05/12

Why are you doing this?

Nobody wants to read a blog post like „Why this blog?“, I know. There can a subtle, distressing desperation in such a justification. Plus I’m afraid of the cold, sudden blog death, where all of the sudden, there are no more texts. Maybe some „I’m very busy at the moment, will come back soon“-post, and then never something else. Writing is a lot of work. Why engaging in it, and especially sharing it online, with other people?  

This is a writing project about science, technology and the future. I have to write about these topics. Well, nobody is making me to, I've put this on myself. But still, I have to. Technology is progressing fast. Like, really fast. And our lives are shaken. 


[list Technology advancements here]
artificial intelligence
energy?
list here a lot of interesting things
 small story on how fast this all goes. (maybe link article 2011 Hermine books and magic
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/02/14/the-information

[And drop that youtube link (how to embed this?)]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVbkHBpT2Qg


Why create something, one could always ask. There is this one poem by Ezra Pound, which is making me shiver every time I read it:

And the days are not full enough
And the nights are not full enough
And life slips by like a field mouse
      Not shaking the grass 

Uhhh. Well, that would be too bad. If life slips by like a field mouse.
I’ll just start writing and let this grow naturally. For now, that’s enough.

Some words about me. My name is Martin, I live an average millennial (*MonkeyCoveringItsEyes*) life in an average city in an average country somewhere in Europe. I’m pursuing my PhD in the area of technology assessment with a focus on renewable energy. This is also kind of a writing exercise in preparation of my thesis (which will hopefully not look as dizzying as this here, but scientists say (whenever I’ll say „scientists say“, what I mean in reality (oh, this is also a good place to drop the disclaimer I kinda like nested brackets, I use those heavily, sorry)) there is a writing organ which you have to train, so I train). Excuse my English, it won’t be perfect all the time, I’m not a native speaker. Perfection can impede progress. I’ll post when something is good enough. This is also a good-enough exercise.
[drop soundcloud link and other private things? too much bragging in this humbleness?]

In the meantime, you could have a look at my all time internet favorites (no, seriously):

Wait but why 

About the name:
The blog will center a lot around what’s happening in the digital world. In the Python programming language, you can import certain packages to beef-up the core functionality. There is a famous xkcd joke on this:


And you can also import the future in Python. Not the future of course, but Pythons future, i.e. the functionality of later versions. It’s a silly title. So there you have a reason for the title.

[Ideas for later] 
Nested logics:
Tell that I wrote this in advance, post a picture of what I intend to write about, and let them see how well that worked…
Made a screen shot of the planned topics and they'd be able to see if I was on time



Estimated Time Status Estimated Date
Layout
2h

20.05.2016
Why are you doing this?
5h

20.05.2016
The future, in the past.
1h

01.06.2016
The past, in the future.
2h

10.06.2016
Technology foresight - Moore’s „law“ and other methods
4h

22.07.2016
Artificial Intelligence and other scary future things
3h

05.08.2016
Complex Systems
5h

07.10.2016
Contraction of sciences
3h


Decision theory and poor judgment
6h

15.11.2016
Underestimation of the speed of the current transformation? (It’s not only computers, you know)
5h


Fatalism - will things soon be completely different anyway?
2h


Short Story (several parts)
20h


Why is it so hard to pick up programming?
5h




posting it actually incomplete?
Will people get this?!
Mention "What About" already